I've already made a case for keeping Eddie around here, but I've been thinking more about it, and I really think now that the Jays should strongly consider a 1B Platoon with EE and Adam Lind. "Lindcarnacion" would provide average-above average defense, and their peripherals would be stellar.
Encarnacion is not a "Lefty Masher" but provides a solid .264/28Hr/90 Rbi total in 606 plate appearances against lefties in his career. Much better than Lind's .217/13/58 line in 510 plate appearances.
Lind has proven that Righties aren't an issue: .290/67/222 in 1482 plate appearances is impressive by any accounts. Encarnacion has put up a .254/72/247 line in 1834 PAs. That's only 5 Hrs and 25 Rbi extra despite almost an entire season's worth of extra ab's.
The other issue is Defense. Defense at 1B has never been a huge premium, and I'm of the opinion that Lyle Overbay was overrated at the position. That said, in some very small sample sizes, Lind's UZR/150 at 1B was 20.4. Encarnacion's -19.6 rating can only be explained by the fact that he only played ONE major league game there to date. Everyone knows that he has some deficiencies on defense at 3B, but at 1B, his arm is taken out of the equation. Fewer throws = fewer thrwoing errors.
I would expect this platoon to really help the team. I'm no expert, but based on Career norms, and some non-scientific projections by me, I believe that this platoon would provide 4.5-6.5 WAR at 1st base (combined total) For comparison, Lyle Overbay and his amazing defense has never been worth more than 2.6 WAR in any professional season. Other 1B to compare (2010 WAR): J Votto (7.4), Albert Pujols (7.3), Prince Fielder (4.1), Adrian Gonzalez (5.3), Ryan Howard (2.0), Miguel Cabrera (6.2), Paul Konerko (4.2), and Mark Teixera (3.5).
So by comparison, the Jays would bring that position overall to an elite level, assuming mediocre-below average defense. If Anthopoulos doesn't end up making a move, I'm more than comfortable with this platoon going into next season.
Love the idea but it doesn't factor in EE's price. 4.75M$ (cot's) last year. I don't think a player can lose money in arb. So is he worth 5M$ to be a platoon 1B/DH?
ReplyDeletemaybe he's non tendered and resigns as a FA for cheaper than 5M$. With guys like huff, lee, glaus, konerko, etc. available it might keep EE's price low as a FA.
Even if he does receive 5million it would pretty much be equal to 2.5 WAR, right? I think Lind can still hit lefties though, and my theory is that he's just opening up too soon on breaking balls due to Cito and Dwayne's pull approach, and that caused him to open up too soon. Sort of like Curtis Granderson. Also Lind was much too aggresive at the plate this year as showcased by his O-Swing% of 34.5%, as apposed to 24.7% in 2009. He also had negative pitch-type values this year, something he didn't have a problem with in 2009.
ReplyDeletebut why not bring in a left handed bat to play with E5 at third?
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on lind.
ReplyDeleteCan EE be worth 2.5 WAR as a platoon 1b/DH?
I'd be more inclined to give the fulltime 1b and DH jobs to lind and EE. If we think Cito's departure will cure Lind's lefty hitting woes, does he even need a platoon partner?
Perhaps DHing will take some pressure of EE.
I'm hopeful for Emaus at 3rd assuming he can play better D than EE. Like you said, the jays can afford to have a guy at third just for his BA and OBP.
ReplyDeleteI don't think EE needs to be a 2.5 WAR first baseman. He will get much less than half of the plate appearances due to the fact that there are more RH starters, and because there will also be more RH Relievers. If he can provide the same 2.9 WAR that he provided this season, he would be worth $5mill to me. Or try what they did with Bautista last year: Sign him before the non-tender date for the same amount (or ideally, less)
ReplyDeleteEdit: EE only posted a 1.9 WAR
ReplyDeleteYou guys heard of positional adjustments? Maybe go read the WAR formula.
ReplyDelete/unbookmarked
I have read the WAR formula. The 1B adjustment is less than the DH adjustment that Lind had been receiving. Encarnacion actually reduces his value for his defensive adjustment at 3B, adn I'm forecasting improvement on that at 1B to compensate for the positional adjustment. So, MAYBE I did read the WAR formula...
ReplyDelete