Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Forgotten Trade Bait: Brad Mills
It's been awfully quiet in Jays land over the past few days. Too quiet. I am sure that Alex Anthopoulos is working on something that will be brain-meltingly huge. Until then, I thought it would be worth looking at another undervalued prospect who is almost definitely trade-bait at this point in his Blue Jay career: Brad Mills.
The JP Ricciardi regime was so enamoured with Mills, that they drafted him twice, first in the 22nd round in 2006, and then in the 4th round in 2007.
He has mostly only made spot starts for the Jays at the Major League level, but has been very good at every minor league level. In three starts last season, he acquitted himself very well, posting a 5.64 ERA. He had one fantastic start against Baltimore (7 innings of shutout ball) and two rougher starts against Boston and Tampa Bay, who are, admittedly, much better than Baltimore.
Based on these appearances, we know two things: He is Major League Ready, and he performs well against mediocre-to-poor opponents.
Which leads me to my conclusion: He could be a very under-rated trade chip. Not a center-piece mind you, but a solid, ML ready contributor. I imagine he would do very well in Arizona (Or any team in the NL for that matter.)
Hear me out regarding his value in a trade: (for now, assume I am considering a Justin Upton trade) be objective: Kevin Towers needs Pitchers. Kevin Towers needs players that are ML ready, and cost-controlled. Mills is both of these things. Mills still has upside, as he was a top-10 Jays prospect before the influx of talent over the past year. Also, Mills has no real role left on the Jays. He's been passed by too many younger prospects, and I see his value as a starter. If he's to continue starting, it will have to be for another organization.
If including Mills allows the Jays to keep a higher-upside prospect, I say do it quickly. Drabek-Mills-Thames-Marisnick-H. Alvarez? Something like that? it would give ARZ exactly what they want in terms of talent, quantity, as well as some quality in Drabek and Alvarez, with upside in Thames and Mills (Both of whom are ML Ready)
I'm interested in hearing your thoughts on Mills' value. Comments to follow.