Tuesday, December 7, 2010

No Longer On Board: The Zack Greinke makes me S.A.D edition

All these rumors about the Jays trading Travis Snider and Kyle Drabek (and more!?!?!?!?) for Zack Greinke are making me depressed.

I'm hoping it can be partly attributed to Seasonal Affective Disorder (S.A.D- Not to be confused with Social Anxiety Disorder, which Zack Greinke would bring with him to Toronto), due to all the snow we've been getting, but I can't escape the depression that comes with the thought of giving up a future 30-.300-100 hitter in Travis Snider.

I'm still on the fence about Drabek. He's clearly got excellent stuff, a great pedigree, and a fiery competitive streak. But since he's not as 'home-grown' as Snider, I wouldn't be as devastated if he were dealt.

Also, since I've already calculated Greinke's surplus value, we know that Snider+Drabek is already an overpay. The years of control+arbitration are so valuable to any team. Especially a team full of question marks such as the Jays are right now. Snider is worth $13.8 Million just based on next year ALONE, with a conservative 2 WAR estimate. I'm not going to speculate on what his total value would be, because there are too many variables due to the arbitration process. But it's safe to assume that it would be close to Colby Rasmus's $64 Million value. They both have the same amount of service time, though Rasmus has more defensive value. To be conservative, I'll say he has HALF the value of Rasmus (He has more than that.) Based on these reasonable assumptions, (feel free to dispute me in the comments section) Travis Snider ALONE has as much surplus value as Zack Greinke. Adding Drabek makes the deal so one-sided that it's laughable. Any more than that and it becomes legendarily bad.

So, in the holiday spirit, I ask Alex Anthopoulos not to ruin the Jays by making any of these rumored deals.

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