Losing Sleep and Games

I am going to officially petition MLB and ask that all games be played during prime-time on the East Coast. I have a job to do, and staying up to watch the Jays play at ungodly hours is cramping my style.

West Coasters should support my idea, they would have baseball from 4-8pm, and still have time to watch TV shows afterwards. I think I'm on to something.

As for the games: Have you ever been more frustrated?

Let's review all of the Jays losses to this point in the season:

- a 4-3 loss to MIN, where the team had the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th
- a 2-1 stymie-ing of the offence versus Trevor Cahill and the Oakland A's, where the A's only managed a win due to some wild pitching by Jason Frasor
- a torrid extra-innings affair in L.A. of A, where an inept umpire cost the Jays a chance to win.
- a loss that the offence really earned, by not being able to touch Jered Weaver.
- a bullpen meltdown that squandered a 6 run lead over 2 innings.
- a pitching gem by Romero that was wasted when the team couldn't cash in again. (Last Night)

A theme is REALLY emerging here. Overall, the starters have not been to blame for these losses. Admittedly, Brett Cecil hasn't been getting it done, but he's not hurting the team either. Reyes showed what he is capable of versus Weaver in LA, and Litsch wasn't great in Seattle, but he battled hard, and didn't allow any runs.

The bullpen was supposed to be dramatically improved this year for the Jays. I know it's much to early to say that it's not, but it certainly has cost the team some games already. I hope that later in the season, none of us fans revisit these losses with regret.

As frustrating as these losses are, there is a lot to take solace in. The offence is exciting, and fun to watch. Rajai Davis showed flashes of what kind of catalyst he can be when healthy. Lind has been hitting lefties. Escobar has been incredible, and managed to even avoid a concussion. The starting pitching has been good, and will get better soon with the addition of Brandon Morrow.

On that note: there seems to be a near constant debate on Twitter as to who Morrow should replace. Jo-Jo Reyes is out of options. Cecil is "established". Litsch is pitching at the level he was at before he hurt his elbow/hip. I feel the need to get preachy on this, so here goes:

Yes, teams should put the best 25-man roster on the field each night. But there is a business to the game that is well documented. Players are people, but on another, more cynical level, they are also assets to a team. Protecting these assets gives teams a cometitive advantage, and allows them to have sustained periods of success. As these assets accumulate value, they can be moved for other assets, similar to the stock market (Thanks Jonah Keri! Read his book, the Extra 2%)

The Jays will inevitably send down one of the 2 starting pitchers with options: Jesse Litsch or Brett Cecil. Cecil only needs to have one good start in the next week-and-a-half to remove his name from this conversation. Although the converse could also be true, and if he continues to struggle, he may find himself ironing things out in Las Vegas. Litsch on the other hand is doing all he can to stick, and he's definitely made a fan of me. But as much as I have come to like his newfound approach, I want him to stay with the team long-term, and so he may have to take a trip to Vegas.

There is also the potential for a trade. Alex Anthopoulos is already shopping David Purcey around the league (He was designated for assignment yesterday, the Jays have 9 more days to trade or waive him) and these discussions could lead to larger deals involving a starting pitcher. Reyes has never been a fan-favourite in Toronto, so fans seem eager to have him be included. I find that management seems to really like him. They targeted him specifically in last years' Escobar trade, and have spoke glowingly about him so far this year. I would be shocked if he doesn't get every opportunity to succeed in Toronto. Romero is going to be with this team for a very long time thatnks to a team-friendly contract extension, and Morrow is hurt. This leaves Cecil and Litsch as the candidates once again. I won't speculate, because I like both. Yet, they would both hold good value, and could be packaged with Purcey to a team that needs help.

Not that the Jays need any more prospects, but at this point it has to be about asset protection.

For another awesome segue, Kyle Drabek (prospects-to-Drabek. How 'bout them apples!) gets a chance this afternoon to be an ace. The kind of pitcher who can come out and put a stop to a losing streak, and get the team pointed in the right direction again. He's been good so far, and I for one am excited to see his continued devlopment.

Bullpen Thoughts

In honour of the Blue Jays signing Frank Francisco and Jason Frasor yesterday, I thought it would be worth taking a look at exactly what the re-vamped bullpen means for the 2011 Jays.

Last season, the Blue Jays ranked 20th in terms of WAR from relivers (Via Fangraphs) with 2.2 WAR. for perspective, no playoff team in either league finished the regular season with lower than 2.7 WAR (Phillies). For further reference, here are the RP WARs from all playoff teams: Twins (3.0), Yankees (3.6), Reds (3.7), Rays (4.0), Rangers (4.5), Giants (6.2) and the Braves (6.7).

Clearly, the Jays required a significant upgrade to compete with these clubs. The Bullpen WAR leaders were the Padres, who amassed a whopping 7.8 WAR from their relievers. That's 5.6 Wins more over the course of a season. If the Jays added 5 wins to their 2010 total, they would have sat at 89 wins, and would have been knocking on the door for the playoffs right up to the final weeks.

Here's where it gets even more complicated: Scott Downs and Kevin Gregg accounted for exactly 2.0 WAR, and both of those pitchers are now with other clubs. Clearly, the Jays needed to add quality and quantity in order to be more competitive. (Aside from their desire to protect their young pitchers, a side benefit that can not be discounted.)

Keeping in mind that WAR overvalues saves for relievers, let's look at what can be expected of the 2011 Jays Relievers:

First, the returnees:

Jason Frasor: Had his best season in terms of WAR in 2009 (when he had 11 saves) and posted a 1.4, his final 2010 number was 0.9, which is in-line with his career average of 0.8 WAR/season. The 0.8 is dragged down by some injury seasons, so expecting at least 1 WAR from Frasor is not at all unreasonable.

Shawn Camp: A man who is loved by fans and broadcasters, yet his SABR numbers are terrible. After what many considered a good season, he only managed to add 0.3 WAR. His FIP was 4.16, and he pitched 72.1 innings. In '08 and '09 he added 0.7 WAR per season, so it's not unreasonable to expect similar numbers going forward.

David Purcey: Only logged 34 innings last season, so unsurprisingly he only amassed 0.2 WAR. His numbers are additionally repressed by his high walk totals. Hard to know what to expect, but pro-rated over a fuller workload (almost double?) he could be up to 0.5

New additions:

Octavio Dotel: Dotel only managed to accumulate 0.1 WAR in 2010, but his 0.8 in Chicago in 2009 was respectable for a set-up man. Dotel hasn't been the same pitcher he was prior to 2004, when he regularly posted WARs above 1.5. If he is limited to use as a ROOGY, he should post somewhere between 0.5 and 0.8 WAR.

Jon Rauch: Rauch was actually quite impressive for the 2010 Twins. He accumulated 1.1 WAR, and an FIP of 2.94. He spent most of the year closing games due to the Joe Nathan injury, and then was a set-up man for Matt Capps. Rauch has consistently been a 0.7-1.0 WAR contributor, and will again provide good value at the back of the Bullpen.

Carlos Villanueva: He has options, and I could see him spending some time on a plane, along with Casey Janssen. He could also be a useful swingman if he makes the team. Never posted higher than 0.4 WAR as a reliever. I'm less excited about him now than when the trade was made. Still, a good depth guy.

Frank Francisco: Likely the favourite to emerge as closer. 1.5, 1.1 and 1.0 are his last three season's WAR totals. If he can stay healthy (a not insignificant IF) and remain at closer, he should easily post similar, if not better numbers.



Those are the 7 players I expect to break camp in the 'pen. They should be worth 4.5-5.5 WAR over a season, assuming health. If Purcey and/or Villanueva can take a step forward, this group would be fearsome. Even assuming that some players don't match career norms, this is a group that will still be useful, deep and a good fall-back for a young and inexperienced starting group.

Further to that, I believe that relief pitching was 2010's market inefficiency, and some of the saavyer GMs are moving quickly to correct their prior stance. The Padres used their 'pen to almost get into the post-season, despite pre-season projections having them in the basement of the entire NL. Aside from the Padres, Boston, Florida, Arizona and LAA have all made moves to shore up their relief corps.

Clearly Anthopoulos realized both a team weakness, and a market inefficiency. I look forward to the improved depth in the 'Pen. In fact, after this exercise, I have a newfound respect for the effects that a bullpen can have on a team. I used to be of the belief that the only important pitchers were the 5 starters and the closer. As it turns out, it takes a lot more than that to make any kind of run at the playoffs.

State of the Franchise: Blue Jays

So, at last night's state of the FrenchFries event for season ticket holders, Shi Davidi reported that Paul Beeston is boasting that the Blue Jays can potentially support a future payroll of $150 Million!

This is one of my primary arguments as a blogger. I consider it my best argument to date, For reference:

-Starting here (Part 1) I looked at how the big spenders generate money for payroll.
-I followed up with some Forbes data here (part 2) but this was the most underwhelming post in the series.
-I concluded here (Part 3) with a deeply in depth look at where the Blue Jays can, and do, generate revenue. I had compared it to some of the other big spending clubs (most notably the Yankees and Red Sox) and concluded that the team could easily afford to spend $150-$160 Million in payroll, and still be a profitable contributor to the Rogers Media Empire.

The other thing that I've noticed is the ever-increasing attention that the Rogers Media division is paying to the Baseball Club. Rogers Sportsnet hired Buck Martinez to do weekday play-by-play. He has been excellent. Buck brings a dramatically increased level of credibility to the Jays broadcasts. Hopefully, in time, this will draw more local fans.

Something else has happened on a local level. (Sportsnet Radio) The Fan 590 have hired Jeff Blair to handle the Mid-Morning airwaves. He continuously brings on high-quality baseball guests (Alex Anthopoulos, John Farrell, Paul Beeston in the last week. Jon-Paul Morosi and Jonah Keri and Jon Rauch the week prior) This continues to increase the level of sophistication of the average Toronto baseball fan, and again, adds credibility to the Franchise.

When people talk about the buzz that this team has been generating, I think that little moves like those get far too overlooked. Considering that it is the same company that owns all three entities (The Team, The TV Network and the Radio Station) it's nice to see that they are maximizing their (probably) most profitable asset. By building the brand in this manner, the Jays will continue to see ratings growth on TV and Radio. Ratings growth translates directly to better advertising revenue. More revenue can be used to fund bigger payroll. All of this has a further spill off, increased live attendance.

Make no mistake. This is a team that is on the rise, and is about to become a dominant player in the Toronto Sports scene. The state of the franchise is: Excellent and getting better.

Eddie's Back, and I'm taking credit for it!

I Said it Here.

I Said it Here.

I Started by saying it Here.

Clearly, someone in the Blue Jays' front office is drinking my Cool-Aid. I've been all over bringing back Eddie since I started forcing my thoughts on people electronically. I suggested a first base platoon before he was ever put on waivers.

I'm taking all the credit for this.

As far as the contract goes: What a steal! almost half of what Encarnacion made last year? Yes please. A CLUB option, in case he realizes his full potential? Also yes.

Worst case scenario: Encarnacion is a streaky DH, or usefull bat-off-the-bench for $2.5 Million.

Best case scenario: Encarnacion realizes his full potential, hits 35-40 HR, and primarily DHs, while spelling Lind at 1B.

Perfect World Scenario: Encarnacion works dilligently over the remaining off-season and becomes an above-average defensive 3B, Hits 40+ HR, and brings his batting average up to the .270-.280 range. Realistic? No, but that's what everyone would have said if I had proposed the same type of thing for Jose Bautista last year.

Let's start fresh with Edwin. He's no longer E5, He's Eddie our DH.