Losing Sleep and Games

I am going to officially petition MLB and ask that all games be played during prime-time on the East Coast. I have a job to do, and staying up to watch the Jays play at ungodly hours is cramping my style.

West Coasters should support my idea, they would have baseball from 4-8pm, and still have time to watch TV shows afterwards. I think I'm on to something.

As for the games: Have you ever been more frustrated?

Let's review all of the Jays losses to this point in the season:

- a 4-3 loss to MIN, where the team had the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th
- a 2-1 stymie-ing of the offence versus Trevor Cahill and the Oakland A's, where the A's only managed a win due to some wild pitching by Jason Frasor
- a torrid extra-innings affair in L.A. of A, where an inept umpire cost the Jays a chance to win.
- a loss that the offence really earned, by not being able to touch Jered Weaver.
- a bullpen meltdown that squandered a 6 run lead over 2 innings.
- a pitching gem by Romero that was wasted when the team couldn't cash in again. (Last Night)

A theme is REALLY emerging here. Overall, the starters have not been to blame for these losses. Admittedly, Brett Cecil hasn't been getting it done, but he's not hurting the team either. Reyes showed what he is capable of versus Weaver in LA, and Litsch wasn't great in Seattle, but he battled hard, and didn't allow any runs.

The bullpen was supposed to be dramatically improved this year for the Jays. I know it's much to early to say that it's not, but it certainly has cost the team some games already. I hope that later in the season, none of us fans revisit these losses with regret.

As frustrating as these losses are, there is a lot to take solace in. The offence is exciting, and fun to watch. Rajai Davis showed flashes of what kind of catalyst he can be when healthy. Lind has been hitting lefties. Escobar has been incredible, and managed to even avoid a concussion. The starting pitching has been good, and will get better soon with the addition of Brandon Morrow.

On that note: there seems to be a near constant debate on Twitter as to who Morrow should replace. Jo-Jo Reyes is out of options. Cecil is "established". Litsch is pitching at the level he was at before he hurt his elbow/hip. I feel the need to get preachy on this, so here goes:

Yes, teams should put the best 25-man roster on the field each night. But there is a business to the game that is well documented. Players are people, but on another, more cynical level, they are also assets to a team. Protecting these assets gives teams a cometitive advantage, and allows them to have sustained periods of success. As these assets accumulate value, they can be moved for other assets, similar to the stock market (Thanks Jonah Keri! Read his book, the Extra 2%)

The Jays will inevitably send down one of the 2 starting pitchers with options: Jesse Litsch or Brett Cecil. Cecil only needs to have one good start in the next week-and-a-half to remove his name from this conversation. Although the converse could also be true, and if he continues to struggle, he may find himself ironing things out in Las Vegas. Litsch on the other hand is doing all he can to stick, and he's definitely made a fan of me. But as much as I have come to like his newfound approach, I want him to stay with the team long-term, and so he may have to take a trip to Vegas.

There is also the potential for a trade. Alex Anthopoulos is already shopping David Purcey around the league (He was designated for assignment yesterday, the Jays have 9 more days to trade or waive him) and these discussions could lead to larger deals involving a starting pitcher. Reyes has never been a fan-favourite in Toronto, so fans seem eager to have him be included. I find that management seems to really like him. They targeted him specifically in last years' Escobar trade, and have spoke glowingly about him so far this year. I would be shocked if he doesn't get every opportunity to succeed in Toronto. Romero is going to be with this team for a very long time thatnks to a team-friendly contract extension, and Morrow is hurt. This leaves Cecil and Litsch as the candidates once again. I won't speculate, because I like both. Yet, they would both hold good value, and could be packaged with Purcey to a team that needs help.

Not that the Jays need any more prospects, but at this point it has to be about asset protection.

For another awesome segue, Kyle Drabek (prospects-to-Drabek. How 'bout them apples!) gets a chance this afternoon to be an ace. The kind of pitcher who can come out and put a stop to a losing streak, and get the team pointed in the right direction again. He's been good so far, and I for one am excited to see his continued devlopment.

Buy Low Targets

Well, the winter meetings are finally done. The Jays elected to take a pass on picking someone in the Major-League portion of the Rule 5 draft, and as such, missed an opportunity to take a gamble on a potential high-upside player, with very little risk associated with them.

Since Mr Anthopoulos is always on the look out for potential stars that have low value associated with them, I thought I should see who's available, what they might cost, and why we should go after them.

Alex Gordon, KC:

Obviously the Jays are interested. Gordon has destroyed the competition at every level of the minor leages, with an OPS over 1.000 at AAA in both of his most recent stints. Why he has been unable to translate that success is anyone's guess, but he has definitely worn out his welcom in Kansas City.

I firmly believe that Gordon is the player that the Jays have been targeting in their clandestine meetings with KC, and that Gordon could be had for a package of middling prospects, or players who could contribute at the Major League Level. Brad Mills? Darin Mastroianni? A package of players of that ilk should be enough to bring Gordon to Toronto.

Brandon Wood, LAA:

Brandon Wood just finished another crushing of the Arizona Fall League. Admittedly, he was a 25-year-old, playing with mostly younger prospects. Against pitchers who were mostly trying to stretch out their arms. But, he continues to show flashes of the brilliance that made him so highly regarded as a prospect.

LAA seems unlikely to use him as anything more than a bench player next season, so his value is not overly high, aside from his lofty former-prospect status. They were known to be in the market for Carl Crawford, and now that he's no longer available, maybe they would take a chance on a guy like Eric Thames? Plus some prospect-ish pitching? Seems like a guy that would be worth the risk.

Andrew Miller, FA:

Available as a free agent now that he has been non-tendered. He's a minimum-cost former top prospect that could be an excellent swing-man, or could fully transition to the 'pen.

Fernando Martinez, NYM:

Ranked inside the Baseball America top-20 twice, and top-30 three times, before falling almost completely off the map last season. He has suffered some injuries, and from being rushed into the Mets lineup due to their injuries.

Blocked in LF by Jason Bay, and in CF by Carlos Beltran and Angel Pagan, Martinez appears to be without a position in New York. He has potential to be at least a 4-tool player (some question his arm strength) and could be a good fit in Toronto. The Mets are beginning a rebuilding phase, and JP Ricciardi is now in the fron office there. What better way for him to scoop up some of his favourite prospects from the Jays' system? Since Martinez is so young, he would likely still have a high cost but I doubt it would be unmanageable.

Mat Gamel, MLW:

Could the Jays and Brewers really make another trade this off-season? Maybe. Gamel has good range, and I could see a move to 1B becoming an option for him. He could still try 3B, and if his arm sorts itself out, he could become the answer for the Jays in the medium-term at that position.

Edwin Encarnacion, FA:

Waiver-claimed by Oakland, but then not tendered a contract. Edwin won't command nearly as much as his $4.75 from last season, and could be a nice sleeper signing. I am not giving up on this guy. Period. He has too much power potential. Now that I've written this, he will likely sign elsewhere in the coming days.

Yonder Alonso, CIN:

Had a brutal first half in AAA, after a hamate-bone surgery last off-season. Came back to life in the second half, but questions still remain. He's also blocked by a pretty good first baseman. Would likely command another top-prospect in return, but less than he would have a year ago, so now would be the time to buy.

Kyle Blanks, SD:

There were only two or three more highly-touted slugging prospects entering this season. Blanks is an enormous individual, and will not last long in the OF. He could DH, and learn to play 1B with Lind.

SD is running out of positions for him, so it may be a chance for them to get some more prospects in return. He would cost a lot, i.e. 1-2 top prospects.

Jordan Schaefer, ATL:

A very athletic player, but plagued by inconsistency. Schaefer, like JP Arencibia also had a strong debut in the Majors. Also like Arencibia, he then proceeded to strike out a tonne. Maybe the coaches could fix a hole in his swing? He would be a defensive upgrade in CF, though we've heard that Wells wants to stay there.

I'll keep this thread open for most of the off-season. Feel free to suggest others in the comments section.

EDIT 1: I've been thinking, and this list is light on pitchers. I know that the Jays aren't looking for pitching specifically, but it's never a bad thing to find another Brandon Morrow.

Joba Chamberlain:

This guy was 3rd on Baseball America's 2008 list. Ahead of Clay Bucholz, Colby Rasmus and our beloved Travis Snider. I know that nobody wants a Yankee castoff, and I personally am not a fan. That said, he's definitely a fallen star at this point.

Adam Miller:

He's been a top prospect in the Indians' organization for almost a half-decade. He's had troubles with his fingers, and before that, his elbow. His injury troubles have de-railed his career, but when he's healthy, he's electric. His fastball tops out at 98, so he could also help from the bullpen. Cleveland didn't bother to protect him, so he's not held in high regard there any longer. Maybe try a lowball offer and see what happens in spring training?

The Pro-Prospect Rebuttal: Top Prospect Lists

It seems that I'm of two minds about prospects in the last few weeks. I decided that first round draft picks are a 1-in-3 shot at a major league player. Less than that for all-star talent. (Here's the article)

I was going to go further and jump off the prospect bandwagon, but something interesting happened: I started to look at top prospect lists for the last 5 years, and was SHOCKED at how accurate they were. I'm going to use Baseball America rankings, as they are easiest to find, and I want to have a consistent source.

2005:

1- Joe Mauer
2- Felix Hernandez
3- Delmon Young
4- Ian Stewart
5-Joel Guzman
6- Casey Kotchman
7-Scott Kazmir
8-Rickie Weeks
9-Andy Marte
10- Hanley Ramirez
11-Lastings Milledge
12-Dallas Mcpherson
13-Matt Cain
14- Jeff Francoeur
15-Prince Fielder
16- Adam Miller
17- Jason Kubel
18- Jeremy Hermida
19-Chad Billingsley
20- Jeff Niemann
21- Brian Dopirak
22-Calos Quentin
23-Jeff Francis
24- Nick Swisher
25- Jose Capellan

That's 8 current/former All-Stars, and almost all of the top-25 have been above-average major league players. Only about 5 of the top-25 could be considered "busts." that's a remarkable 80% success rate. Other notables from the 2005 top-100 include: Ryan Howard (27), JJ Hardy (28), Edwin Jackson (30), Zach Duke (34), Gavin Floyd (35), Brian McCann (44), Shin-Soo Choo (51), Franklin Gutierrez (54), Curtis Granderson (57), John Danks (59), James Loney (62), Aaron Hill (64), Nick Markakis (65), Cole Hamels (71), Billy Butler (75), Kendry Morales (76), Ubaldo Jimenez (82), Russell Martin (89), Jon Papelbon (91), Ian Kinsler (98)

So, based on no scientific conclusions about top-caliber players, I estimate that about 20% become top-caliber/All-star talent, and almost all become Major League Players.

2006:

1- Delmon Young
2- Justin Upton
3- Brandon Wood
4- Jeremy Hermida
5- Steven Drew
6- Francisco Liriano
7- Chad Billingsley
8- Justin Verlander
9-Lastings Milledge
10-Matt Cain
11-Prince Fielder
12- Howie Kendrick
13-Alex Gordon
14- Andy Marte
15-Ryan Zimmermann
16- Ian Stewart
17-Conor Jackson
18- Jarrod Saltalamaccia
19-Andy Laroche
20-Carlos Quentin
21-Nick Markakis
22- Jon Lester
23-Chris Young (Centre Fielder)
24- Bobby Jenks
25- Troy Tulowitzki

Wow, this is an even more impressive prospect class. I'd say 10 or 11 of these guys are perrenial all-stars. There is obviously some year-over-year repeats and guys who've moved up, but a 50-55% all star rate is impressive. Interesting to note that Hanley Ramirez dropped to 30th once he was traded to Florida. I guess it's true that Boston prospects are just worth more... This year's class was easier to find, so if you want to see the rest of the group, follow this link. Another conservative estimate, but again, about 20% all-star calibre. (Ricky Romero also makes an appearance at #87)

2007:
1- Daisuke Matsuzaka
2- Alex Gordon
3- Delmon Young
4- Phil Hughes
5- Homer Bailey
6- Cameron Maybin
7- Evan Longoria
8-Brandon Wood
9- Justin Upton
10- Andrew Miller
11- Tim Lincecum
12- Chris Young
13- Andrew McCutcheon
14- Jay Bruce
15-Troy Tulowitzki
16- Yovanni Gallardo
17- Reid Brignac
18- Carlos Gonzalez
19- Andy LaRoche
20- Mike Pelfrey
21- Matt Garza
22- Fernando Martinez
23- Adam Miller
24- Clayton Kershaw
25- Billy Butler

Another stellar group that is already contributing all-stars. What is becoming even more interesting to me, is how many of these former-prospects are currently on different teams than they were at the time of ranking. The rest of the 2007 list is here. Adam Lind was 39th, Travis Snider 53rd, and Brandon Morrow 87th (which looks like a lucky number for the Jays).

2008:
1- Jay Bruce
2- Evan Longoria
3- Joba Chamberlain
4- Clay Bucholz
5- Colby Rasmus
6-Cameron Maybin
7-Franklin Morales
9-Homer Bailey
10- David Price
11- ***Travis Snider*** Yeah, that's right, BEFORE Matt "Sliced-Bread" Weiters
12-Matt Weiters
13- Jacoby Ellsbury
14- Andrew McCutcheon
15-Jake McGee
16- Brandon Wood
17- Wade Davis
18-Mike Moustakas
19- Elvis Andrus
20- Fernando Martinez
21- Rick Porcello
22-Carlos Gonzalez
23-Matt LaPorta
24- Nick Adenhart, R.I.P
25- Jordan Schaefer

Some, if not most of the players on this list are still works-in-progress, but the talent that has been displayed is pretty impressive. Once again, to see the rest, click here. Joey Votto makes his first appearance at #44, Gio Gonzalez continues his quest to play in every Major League organization, and if you are curious: Beau Mills was ranked #87. He is also un-protected in this year's Rule-5 draft. Coincedence? I think not. Early prediction has him playing 3B for the Jays in 2011.

It's much too early to play this game with the 2009 list, but here's some highights: Travis Snider was ranked 6th in '09, so he's still got some hype. JP Arencibia ranked 43rd before his down year. Brett Cecil was 72.Canadians, Nick Weglarz and Michael Saunders checked in at 58 and 65 respectively. Brett Lawrie was ranked 81st, Phillippe Aumont was 93rd. #87 was Freddie Freeman, but I doubt he's available right now.

2010 was published less than a year ago, and there are already some all-stars (Heyward) and World series champions on the list (Posey, Bumgarner). The Jays were well represented: (Drabek(25), Lawrie(59), D'Arnaud(81)) #87 was Lars Anderson, who may be redundant in Boston with the arrival of Adrian Gonzalez. Buy-low option? nah... but my superstition will have me keep an eye on him now.

In Summary, top prospects work out. Period. Go through and read the lists. You'll notice that I didn't even have to include team names beside the players listed. Almost all baseball fans know who they are already, speaking to the quality talents that they have developed into. Prospects do seem to move around quite a bit, and I may write a separate piece on that in the near future. But, for teams that can get and keep top prospects, the return is incredible. I'm sure that Alex Anthopoulos knows this, and will continue to go out and acquire these types of players.

What The Jays Got for Marcum:

So, by now you've probably read that the Toronto Blue Jays have traded Shawn Marcum. What most people won't know initially is just how awesome the return is.

Brett Lawrie is Canadian. I'm not overly concerned with this. He grew up in BC, and likely has been to more Mariners games than Jays Games.

What I do care about is the fact that the jays just got (arguably) the best Second Base prospect in all of baseball. Baseball America ranked him as the 15th best prospect OVERALL in their mid-season review. John Sickels graded him B+ before the season, and in his mid-year review insinuated that he would upgrade that ranking based on defensive improvements. All scouting reports have him as a fierce competitor, though he lacks defensive intensity. Keith Law called his swing "a prototypical left-handed sweet swing, from the right side."

This guy is a VERY impressive prospect. Be excited. Alex did well in getting this as a return.

As a side note, he apparently posted news of the trade to Toronto in his facebook status. I cannot confirm this, but it's cool that he's excited enough about it to post it.

I reserve the right to take all of this glowing praise back if word leaks that he's not involved in the deal, but it looks like as of now he will be coming to Toronto, he'll likely be added to the 40-man, and will start no lower than AA New Hampshire, though in all likelihood he'll go to Vegas for half the year, targeting a mid-season call up if he doesn't slump. He will definitely be at spring training, with Brian Butterfield glued to his hip. He will be a league average 2B (He also has enough arm-strength to play 3B) before he leaves on an assignment designed to do nothing more than delay his service time.

Why the Anti-Draft Plan Works.

After looking at the way Kenny Williams runs his teams in Chicago yesterday, and looking back on how poorly the Indians drafted when John Farrell was developing players for them, I thought I should look at the draft over the last decade.

2000:
All Stars:
-Adrian Gonzalez (1)
-Chase Utley (15)
-Adam Wainwright (29)

Useful Regulars:
-Rocco Baldelli (6)
-Kelly Johnson (38 Comp round)
-Dustin McGowan (33-Comp)
-Dustin Moseley (34-Comp)


Only 8 of the top 40 (about 20%) players chosen in 2000 made any significant contribution to a Major League Club in the last decade.
On to 2001:
All Stars:
-Joe Mauer (1)
-Mark Prior (2)
-Mark Teixera (5)
-David Wright (31-Comp Round)

Useful Regulars:
-Gavin Floyd (4)
-Casey Kotchman (13)
-Gabe Gross??? (15)
-Aaron Heilman (18)
-Mike Fontenot (19)
-Jeremy Sowers (20)
-Jeremy Bonderman (26)
-Noah Lowry (30)

There were 44 players taken in the first round of 2001. This time 12 players were considered worthy of mention. (27%)

2002:
All Stars:
-Zack Greinke (6)
-Prince Fielder(7)
-Joe Saunders (12)
-Scott Kazmir (15)
-Nick Swisher(16)
-Cole Hamels(17)
-Matt Cain(25)
**It makes me sad to know that we drafted Russel Adams with pick 14. 5 future all-stars were taken after him.

Useful Regulars:
-BJ Upton (2)
-Jeff Francis (9)
-Jeremy Hermida (11)
-Khalil Greene (13)
-Royce Ring (18)
-James Loney (19)
-Denard Span (20)
-Jeff Francoeur (23)
-Joe Blanton (24)
-Sergio Santos (27)
-Mark Teahen (39-Comp)

Wow. The '02 first round really produced. 18 of 41 draftees contributed at the ML Level. (44%)

2003:
All Stars:
-Nick Markakis (7)
-Aaron Hill (13)
-Chad Cordero (20) Yes, he was once an all-star, look it up if you don't believe me...
-Chad Billingsley (24)
-Carlos Quentin (29)
-Adam Jones (37-Comp)

Regulars:
-Delmon Young (1)
-Rickie Weeks (2)
-Paul Maholm (8)
-John Danks (9)
-Ian Stewart (10)
-Lastings Milledge (12) *Now that's he's been non-tendered, I could see him as a Jay...*
-Conor Jackson (19)
-David Aardsma (22)
-Daric Barton, Mitch Maier, Matt Murton and Jarrod Saltalamaccia were also first rounders, though their usefulness is debatable. 18/37 made it to the show. (48%)

2004:
All Stars:
-Justin Verlander (2)
-Jered Weaver (12)
-Phil Hughes (23)
-Huston Street (40-Comp)

Regulars:
-Phil Humber (3)
-Jeff Niemann (4)
-Billy Butler (14)
-Stephen Drew (15)
-David Purcey (16)
-Josh Fields (18) *I'm being generous here*
-Gio Gonzalez (38-Comp)

12/41 made it from the '04 draft. A pretty poor showing (29%)

2005:
All Stars:
-Justin Upton (1)
-Ryan Zimmermann (4)
-Ryan Braun (5)
-Ricky Romero (6) *Not yet, but soon*
-Troy Tulowitzki (7)
-Clay Bucholz (42-Comp)

Regulars:
-Alex Gordon (2) and Jeff Clement (3) are debateable
-Wade Townsend (8)
-Mike Pelfrey (9)
-Cameron Maybin (10)
-Andrew McCutcheon (11)
-Jay Bruce (12)
-Chris Volstad (16)
-Cliff Pennington (21)
-Jacoby Ellsbury (23)
-Matt Garza (25)
-Colby Rasmus (28)
-Travis Buck (36-Comp)

19/48 made it this year, a whopping 39.5%. A lot of quality though.

2006:
All Stars
-Evan Longoria (3)
-Tim Lincecum (10)

Regulars:
-Luke Hochevar (1)
-Brandon Morrow (5)
-Clayton Kershaw (7)
-Drew Stubbs (8)
-Max Scherzer (11)
-Travis Snider (14)
-Ian Kennedy (21)
-Daniel Bard (28)
-Emmanuel Burriss (33-Comp)
-Chris Coghlan (36-Comp)
-Joba Chamberlain (41)
-Chris Perez (42)

13/44 (29.5%)

The 2007 draft has not yet had time to be properly analyzed. That draft has already contributed 2 All Stars (David Price (1), Jason Heyward (15)) and a handful of players have reached the Majors (Weiters, Bumgarner, LaPorta, Arencibia, Porcello) but there are still players like Mike Moustakas that are in the upper minors and can change the entire perspective on the class. 2008-9-10 all face similar analysis issues.

That said, there is more than enough data to provide a sample size that is workable. Generally speaking, about 30-40 percent of first round (including comp round) players seem to make it to the Major Leagues. If you were running a team, that means that you only have to "get it right" in the first round once every 3 years. (oddly that's about all a hitter in baseball needs to do to be a hall-of-famer...)

Which means that giving up a first rounder isn't really a big deal. I no longer oppose any type-A free agent signings, because I'd bet that they work out much more often than the pick would anyway.

As a follow up, I was looking into top prospect rankings. I had hoped that they would have similar results as the draft: NOT SO. I'll post some information on top prospect lists in the coming days, but those tend to work out MUCH better.

The Anti-Prospect GM: Kenny Williams

Everyone loves prospects. Salivating over what they will one day become. They're like babies: unlimited potential. Sadly, like the babies in this analogy, most never realize their full potential.

Nobody in baseball seems to understand this more than Chicago White Sox current General Manager Kenny Williams.

Williams became the General Manager of the White Sox in 2000, and he has built the team into a perrenial contender since. They won the 2005 World Series, and the 2008 AL Central division. Over a period of 10 years, one could call Williams a terrific success as a GM.

What prompted me to write a profile about Williams, is that he seems to HATE prospects, especially his own. In fact, the White Sox began this year without a single prospect in the top-100 in baseball, and then, when Daniel Hudson emerged as an undervalued prospect, Williams traded him too. Let's look at his history:

The first thing that stands out from my research is that Williams and his staff have been TERRIBLE at drafting. I mean, really, really, really bad. Other than 1st-rounder Gordon Beckham (Who has been rumored to be available in trade talks already this winter) Williams has drafted the following collection of standouts in the first round:
-Royce Ring, Brian Anderson, Josh Fields, Lance Broadway, Kyle McCulloch, and Aaron Poreda (I'll leave out his 09/10 drafts as it's too soon to analyze those, but Chris Sale seems to be working out nicely)

Of the 9 1st rounders listed, only Becham is still with the team (for now) and only Ring and Poreda are regular contributors at the Major League level (Fields is with the Royals, but didn't offer much this past season) So it's not much surprise that the White Sox don't exactly have a loaded farm system. Despite that, they manage to convince other teams to trade proven Major League players for "prospects."

Here are some of the current White Sox acquired via trade (When I coul dfind who was dealt for them I listed it in Brackets, former 1st rounders in Bold):

Edwin Jackson (Dan Hudson, David Holmberg)
Juan Pierre (John Ely, Jon Link)
Mark Teahen (Chris Getz, Josh Fields)
Jake Peavy (Aaron Poreda, Clayton Richard, 2 others)
Mark Kotsay (Brian Anderson)
Ramon Castro (Lance Broadway)
Carlos Quentin (Chris Carter)
Gavin Floyd (Freddie Garcia) Gio Gonzalez came to Chicago in this trade, but was dealt for Nick Swisher. Nick Swisher was dealt to NYY and that return has not yielded a Major Leaguer yet.
John Danks (Brandon McCarthy)
Alex Rios (Straight Waiver Claim)

Williams also managed to grab Alexei Ramirez from Cuba, which did not cost him an asset. The White Sox also just gave away another 1st round pick by signing Adam Dunn, so there isn't likely to be another influx of talent in the deep 2011 draft.

Why bother looking so deeply at the GM of another team?

To prove that there are more ways than the draft-and-develop-and-over-value-your-prospects method that some teams (and fans) have been strongly advocating in the past few years. Williams has been surprisingly at or around the $100 Million mark, so he's not spending his way to success. His highest payroll was the 2008 AL Central championship team, coming in at $121 Million.

The other, and more key takeaway is that MOST PROSPECTS FAIL. Unless you plan to offer the argument that the White Sox employ a group of kindergarten children as a scouting staff, it is safe to assume that most of the prospects that Williams has traded away were highly regarded by intelligent baseball minds. Whether that was on draft day, or at another point in their development. Williams seems impervious to having a prospect develop into "the next big thing," yet always seems to extract maximum value for them in trades.

To bring this back to the Toronto Blue Jays: I'm mostly preparing for the outrage that will inevitably occur once Alex Anthopoulos trades away one of his shiny prospect-prizes. If the Jays plan to compete at the Major League level, it will happen. The thing to remember is: Most of them fail anyway.

I'll take a look around at some other GMs over the winter. Epstein is pretty much the opposite of Williams, and he has a couple championships this decade as well, so that might make for a good comparison as well.

A Big Delicious Bowl of Trade Chips

Now that we've heard that Alex Antopoulos isn't chasing after Justin Upton, we can all take a deep breath and give Travis Snider a big-imaginary-Blue-Jays-Hug. I'm very, very happy that I'll get to see him in a Jays uniform next year, and I'm not overly concerned about our outfield depth.

After I looked at what Brad Mills would be worth in a Justin Upton trade (Here) I started to wonder if there would be a way to place a trade value on everyone, to get an estimate of what we could get, and who we have that's valuable.

As it so happens, sabermatrician Sky Kalkman of Beyond the Boxscore, has created an excel spreadsheet that allows for a dollar value to be placed on a player, based on WAR projections, and their current contract. Victor Wang of the Harball Times takes this another step further by compiling a mountain of data that gives a dollar value to all prospects based on John Sickels' rankings.

Since I've already explained that I like WAR, and I publicly follow John Sickels, you can easily conclude that I like these methods for valuing players. I'm going to take it another step further in assessing trade value, by adding a "Major League Ready" component. For Example, JP Arencibia would be more highly valued to some clubs in a trade, because he is ready to contribute at the highest level. Travis D'Arnaud and Carlos Perez may have a higher upside according to Sickels, so I feel the need to account for this in Valuing trades.

This was a mountain of data, and I've had to make some conservative WAR predictions (listed in Brackets) as well as some arbitration award estimates. Here is the data, with my analysis to follow. I'm listing them in order of MY perceived trade value, with the Kalkman number as reference.

Ricky Romero- 68.6 (4WAR average)
Adam Lind- 52.4 Million (Based on 3.5 WAR avg at First Base)
Aaron Hill- 23.6 Mill (3 WAR estimate)
Travis Snider-13.8 Mill (2 WAR) UPSIDE UPSIDE UPSIDE
Shawn Marcum- 19 Mill
Brandon Morrow-13.2 UPSIDE!
Yunel Escobar-17.7
Brett Cecil- 16.5
Kyle Drabek-15.9 -MLB Ready
Jose Bautista-15.2 (8 Mill arb estimate, 4 WAR?)
Deck Mcguire-15.2- Cant be traded yet
Zach Stewart- 15.2- MLB Ready
Rajai Davis- 12.4
Marc Rzepczinski- 11.6
JP Arencibia- 5.5- MLB Ready
Shawn Camp- 10.5
Casey Janssen-8.7
Jeremy Accardo-8.3
Adeiny Hechevarria-0.7- MLB Ready?
Woj, Sanchez, Syndergaard, Murphy- 7.3- All can't be traded yet
Jose Molina- 6.5
Travis D'Arnaud-5.5
Carlos Perez- 5.5
Eric Thamses- 5.5
Kellin Sweeney-5.5
Henderson Alvarez-2.1
Jake Marisnick-0.7


Wow, I made some adjustments based on MLB readiness, but I am amazed at how this list looks. Obviously the prospect values aren't 100% accurate, but that's what the project to deliver to the current club. I'm also amazed at how much value Lind and Hill have, even without all-star levels of production. Lind also gets a value boost by moving to the field, as his WAR positional adjustment is less punishing. Escobar and Morrow are WAY undervalued, because the data I used only estimates their value for next year, not counting all 3 years of arbitration eligibility that they have. Same for Snider (Who could be valued at nearly $100 Million if the arbitration process favours the Jays.)

Because of their team-friendly deals, Romero, Lind and Hill offer massive trade value, even at levels below their career highs. The cost-controlled prospects that are MLB ready also add a huge amount of value (Snider, Cecil, Rzep, Drabek, Deck) so I've moved off my willingness to trade those guys.

For comparison, here are the same trade value factors for some popular trade targets:

Justin Upton- 58.1 Million (career avg is 4.5 WAR)
Colby Rasmus- 64.0 Million (4 years of team control)
Zach Greinke- 33.6 Million (his $13 Million salary brings him way down even at a 6 WAR prediction)

The conclusion is that in order to get these big pieces that are very, very valuable, it would cost the Jays some of their big pieces. The other conclusion is that Lind and Hill are still surprisingly valuable, despite down years. This also allows us to compare trade value when making proposals. ie: Romero + Snider proposal from JP Morosi for Upton a few days ago would be a total 1-sided trade in terms of value. Similarly, a proposal of Drabek + Stewart for Greinke actually nets out to nearly equal value (Surprise!)

If anyone has a trade target that they would like to estimate the value of, post it in the comments and I'll happily calculate the value of said player, and look at what combinations would be fair in a trade offer.

Happy Black Friday everyone.